Popular support for President Correa declines; experts blame a bad economy, a confrontational style and unrealistic expectations

November 19, 2009 01:40 by Admin

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is finding that a weak economy, electricity shortages and a confrontational governing style have undermined support for his government, just three years after taking office in a landslide that highlighted the rise of populist leaders in Latin America.

Polls taken last month show that approval ratings for the 46-year-old, U.S.-educated socialist have fallen into the mid-40s, well down from the 73% he had soon after taking office in early 2007, pollster Cedatos-Gallup International said Wednesday.

That slide matches the drop in support for leftist allies such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez. Lower commodities prices have undermined their ability to sustain spending programs, while rising crime and electricity shortages in resource-rich nations underscore the rampant inefficiency of parts of the public sector.

"The time to fulfill many promises has passed, and people are waiting for answers," said Teodoro Bustamante, an independent Ecuadorean political analyst and academic. "Promises and insults have reached their limits."

As the patronage ebbs along with the government coffers, the failure of some statist policies is becoming more evident. Meanwhile, a dearth of private-sector investment has meant some of these sputtering economies have little to fall back on. The nationalist rhetoric and attacks on the opposition no longer resonate as strongly as they did when leftist leaders came to power riding a wave of antipathy toward market-oriented economies.

Chávez's approval rating slipped to 46% in October from 53% a month earlier, as annual inflation runs around 30% even as Venezuela's economic contraction deepened in the third quarter from a year ago. Fernandez's approval rating in Argentina stands at about 20%, with pollsters pointing to her confrontational style and an anemic economy.

All three leaders enjoy considerable influence over the legislative and judicial branches, making it harder to blame the opposition when entitlement programs dry up just as unemployment and inflation are on the rise.

After taking office in Ecuador, Correa took a page from Chávez's playbook and quickly undermined Congress by establishing a Constituent Assembly, which promptly wrote a new constitution. That paved the way for Correa to run anew for office, and he started a second term in August after cutting short his first term.

As president, Correa has taken much greater control over oil production from the private sector, much along the lines of what has happened in Venezuela. He also roundly criticized the media for questioning what he calls a citizens' revolution.

However, Correa has also had to deal with the economic downturn, with gross domestic product expected to expand a mere 1% this year after growing by 6.5% last year.

Economists warn the high level of subsidies isn't sustainable. But cutting them back or eliminating them is politically and socially sensitive for a government that built its support on such public spending.

If the economic situation doesn't improve, Correa could suffer the fate of earlier presidents, some analysts speculate. Since 1996, Ecuador has had seven presidents, most of whom were run out of office before finishing their terms.

Credit: By Robert Kozak and Mercedes Alvaro, The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wjs.com