Following widespread police protests in late September, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa reportedly said he would not dissolve the legislature despite an earlier threat to do so. The upheaval never reached the critical mass necessary to overthrow the government, but it did show that Correa faces growing opposition from many directions. The coming months will see his government work hard to prevent those forces from forming a united campaign.

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa said he does not intend to dissolve the legislature despite an earlier threat to do so, El Comercio reported Oct. 6. The report came six days after police staged widespread protests against legislation that cut spending by reducing police benefits. Correa blamed his political opponent, former Ecuadorian President Lucio Gutierrez, and certain members of opposition groups for instigating the police revolt. Although the situation in Quito seems to have stabilized, Correa has extended an emergency decree until Oct. 8.

Correa’s recent moves are a clear indication that, although he was able to reassert his authority following the protests and remains a popular president — with an approval rating of more than 50 percent — he appears to be facing rising opposition from many directions and is proceeding with caution.

Correa came to power in 2006 supported by a broad coalition of social movements, including indigenous groups and student and neighborhood associations unhappy with Ecuador’s political system. Believing that the system limited their participation in the political process, these groups demanded the creation of a constituent assembly that sought to change the constitution. Correa’s main campaign promise, which he fulfilled, was to rewrite the constitution to create a so-called “plurinational” state, like Bolivia, which would recognize and guarantee the rights of all existing nationalities in Ecuador and give the state more control over the economy, especially the ownership of natural resources. Indigenous groups in particular supported Correa’s political agenda because they saw the prospect of having their way of life officially recognized and protected.

As time passed, Correa and his political and economic agenda, which called for expropriating private property in the communications, energy and infrastructure sectors, ran up against growing opposition from the business community. Despite their initial support for Correa, indigenous groups — represented by the National Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) — also began to criticize the president. This opposition stemmed mainly from his support of oil exploration in the Amazon basin, where many indigenous people live. CONAIE has argued that exploring for oil in the region goes against the principles of plurinationalism because it adversely impacts the indigenous people’s way of life. Recently, CONAIE approached Correa’s opposition and publicly expressed its willingness to work more closely with the groups and against Correa.

In April, Correa reshuffled the top command of the Ecuadorian armed forces, replacing the chief of staff of the armed forces with Gen. Ernesto Gonzales, who is known to be independent of Gutierrez, the former president. When the police protests began, it was unclear whether the move had worked in Correa’s favor; some 150 armed air force personnel participated in a blockade of the airport to prevent Correa from leaving the country. Nonetheless, during the upheaval, Gen. Gonzales, said the armed forces would support the president, and the military rescued Correa from the hospital where he was being held prisoner by the police.

The day after the police uprising, most of the editorial pages in Ecuadorian newspapers disapproved of the way Correa handled the situation. The government has had a troubled relationship with the media since 2007, when Quito tried to expropriate newspapers and TV stations that it accused of conspiring against the state. In 2008, the government took possession of two TV stations, Gamavision and Television, and has since created a state-owned TV station to compete with the private news industry.

The business sector, represented mainly by the Chamber of Commerce in Guayaquil and Quito, has declared its opposition to what it considers the lack of a juridical business environment in Ecuador. The government has increased its power over the economy by enacting laws that, among other things, confiscate property from private owners in the energy sector and assume management of the public funds that maintain airports and seaports. The business sector in Guayaquil, Ecuador’s trade gateway, has been hit particularly hard by the legislation. Guayaquil is also the home of Jaime Nebot, who, besides being the city’s mayor, is a strong opponent of Correa’s policies and claims the president has intensified the polarization of Ecuadorian society.

While the recent upheaval was widespread, it did not reach the critical mass necessary to overthrow the government. Unlike the coup in 2000 that brought down President Jamil Mahuad, the September unrest was limited to police protests and isolated criticism from the business sector. Frequently, for a coup to succeed in Ecuador, instigators must mobilize large segments of the population and gain the support of the armed forces. In this case, a massive social uprising backed by the armed forces did not take place.

The indigenous movement represented by CONAIE has remained relatively quiet, saying that despite its disagreements with Correa, it does not support the overthrow of the government. Correa also has received support from Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) members, which fears a repeat of the 2009 Honduras coup. Less than 12 hours after the police protests began, presidents and foreign ministers from UNASUR countries met in Buenos Aires and promised to completely isolate Ecuador if Correa were overthrown.

So far, Correa has managed to outmaneuver the police protesters and re-establish order in Ecuador, though the conflict is still not resolved. The government fears that growing resistance from groups like CONAIE, supported by the media, police and business sector, could eventually pose an existential problem for the Correa regime. For that reason, the government’s efforts will be focused in the coming months on keeping these sectors from uniting in a common campaign.

Credit: Stratfor Global Intelligence, www.stratfor.com